Maganomics

Trump is making short-term choices that jeopardize future growth and prosperity. His policies are literally consuming and depleting essential resources, such as capital, assets, opportunities, and the environment, undermining future sustainability, which he will then bank to the immediate benefit of himself and others like him.

Trump and Bessent can make it work, for a while. A great deal of money will be made, which will briefly include retirement accounts, and I intend to ride the bubble just like every other market realist, but that doesn't mean it's the right thing to do. The costs will far exceed the benefits once the economy reaches an imbalance from which it cannot recover.

Trump will subvert Fed independence and lower short-term interest rates by 150 basis points
He will do this to save 100 to 150B in interest rate payments
Our currency will be debased
Inflation expectations will skyrocket
This will spur asset speculation and turbocharge economic growth
Mortgages and the long end of the curve for treasuries will accelerate (Xi will also start to unwind his positions)
Trump will then instruct Bessent to intervene
The Treasury will sell fewer long-term bonds and increase buybacks to lower the long end
He will then retire existing bonds and fund the government with short-term maturities
The result will be a 25% decrease in long-term issuance - the equivalent of QE at its largest monthly impact ever
Stocks, gold, and bitcoin will rally dramatically (Trumps cryptos will also benefit)
Inflation will continue to accelerate as growth becomes malignant
The dollar will be crushed, and pressure on the long end will continue to increase until it reaches a point of no return

The market will be pulled back like a sling shot until the imbalance can no longer be contained. The result will be catastrophic.

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'Chernobyl'

The Economy, Productivity, and Prosperity

What is America first?

Productivity - it increases GDP and provides an important check on inflation, but its benefits have not meant that workers get paid more. Rather it is the penthouse population that has accrued billions of additional dollars in capital accumulation. None of this was inevitable - it's Policy. Why?

Tax codes that favor capital gains over wages
Deregulation that strips workers of protection
Trade agreements that favor corporate margins over community stability

All of the this has tilted the playing field towards the top by Ivy League Democrats and Republicans – it is corrupt and unfair. There was a way corporate profits from trade deals could have been shared by workers. Extra revenue could have gone to retraining and to assisting workers to relocate to areas where jobs were better - but we didn’t do that.

We just let the rich get richer and our industrial towns dwindle into nothing. But now that's largely over. America has ceded its position as a global manufacturing economy and has transformed into an information and services economy. This means we need to lean away from trade wars that have no objective, and to emphasize policy changes that tilt us back to regular working people.

To reverse this imbalance means that we need to make deliberate systemic choices - universal health care that ends the tie between jobs and health insurance. Countries with universal systems spend 30 to 40% less than we do and get better health outcomes. This will reduce economic insecurity and end the need for workers to cling to bad jobs in order to retain health benefits.

Universal and subsidized childcare. This would free millions to fully participate in the workforce. Quebec's increased female participation in the workforce has already paid for itself in new tax revenues.

How about a national affordable housing infrastructure plan? Launch a public/private housing initiative to build millions of new affordable units coupled with zoning reform and incentives for mixed income development. Pair that with strict anti-speculation measures that keep homes in the hands residents instead of investment funds. Today investors who buy a home to flip or rent have make up about 30% of new family home purchases.

How about restoring bankruptcy laws that place the burden of lending on lenders not borrowers. Allowing workers to rejoin the economy faster benefits every American.

Build job resilient job creating clean energy infrastructure. Invest massively in modernizing our energy grid, expanding solar, wind, and battery storage, and harden our system against climate shocks. This creates good union jobs while reducing our vulnerability to extreme weather events

How about a targeted climate policy. Institute a national carbon price and reinvest revenues into transition assistance for workers in fossil fuel industries. Fund job creating large scale reforestation and wetlands restoration, and urban heat mitigation projects.

We're told prosperity trickles down, but it doesn't and never has. It has been sucked upward by an Ivy League dominated Congress addicted to the corrupting influence of money. While the top 1% thrives, everyone else is told to work harder, retrain, go somewhere else where there are good jobs

An economy that works for everyone is a choice. We have just been making the wrong ones.

These policies are not radical, they are a return to a basic American ideal, an ideal that is shared by many Republicans and Democrats, not because it is an ideology, but because it is the American ideal - if you work hard you should share in the prosperity you helped create.

My name is John Szemler, and I am running to reform Congress.